Global leaders have emphasized the need for a prompt resolution to the ongoing crisis in the Middle East. Bloomberg posted on X that U.S. allies have expressed support for the decision to target Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The situation has drawn international attention, with various nations advocating for diplomatic efforts to address the tensions. The focus remains on finding a peaceful solution to the conflict, as the region continues to experience instability.

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour recently discussed the speculation surrounding Ayatollah Khamenei's death and related prediction market events on X. According to Odaily, Mansour emphasized that Kalshi does not list markets directly tied to death. Instead, they design rules to prevent profit from such outcomes. In response to the event concerning 'Khamenei stepping down as Supreme Leader,' Kalshi will implement specific measures: 1. All fees for this market will be refunded. 2. For users who opened positions before Khamenei's death, settlements will be based on the last trading price before his passing. 3. Users who opened positions after Khamenei's death will receive full compensation for their costs. Mansour further assured, "No user will lose a dollar in this market. We will settle the market based on the last transaction price before Khamenei's death, which was at 1:14 AM Eastern Time today."

This letter devoted a large portion to the progress of AI, and sometimes it felt like I was falling behind. The gap between newly released products and the most advanced technology from last year is stark.

According to SoSoValue data, Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $80.46 million this week (February 23 to February 27, Eastern Time). The Ethereum spot ETF with the largest net inflow this week was Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE), with a weekly net inflow of $40.4688 million. ETHE's historical total net outflow is currently $5.15 billion. This is followed by Fidelity ETF (FETH), with a weekly net inflow of $39.4843 million. FETH's historical total net inflow is currently $2.5 billion. The Ethereum spot ETF with the largest net outflow this week was BlackRock ETF (ETHA), with a weekly net outflow of $41.7752 million. ETHA's historical total net inflow is currently $11.83 billion. As of press time, the total net asset value of the Ethereum spot ETF is $10.96 billion, the ETF net asset ratio (market capitalization as a percentage of Ethereum's total market capitalization) is 4.72%, and the historical cumulative net inflow has reached $11.6 billion.

According to SoSoValue data, the SOL spot ETF saw a net inflow of $44.44 million this week (February 23 to February 27, Eastern Time). The SOL spot ETF with the largest net inflow this week was the Bitwise ETF BSOL, with a weekly net inflow of $39.173 million, bringing its historical total net inflow to $733 million. This was followed by the Fidelity ETF FSOL, with a weekly net inflow of $2.583 million, bringing its historical total net inflow to $163 million. As of press time, the total net asset value of the SOL spot ETF was $753 million, with an ETF net asset value ratio (market capitalization as a percentage of total SOL market capitalization) of 1.63%, and a historical cumulative net inflow of $934 million.

According to SoSoValue data, XRP spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $9.55 million this week (February 23 to February 27, Eastern Time). The XRP spot ETF with the largest net inflow this week was the Bitwise ETF XRP, with a weekly net inflow of $5.8079 million, bringing XRP's historical total net inflow to $370 million. The second largest was the Franklin ETF XRPZ, with a weekly net inflow of $3.001 million, bringing XRPZ's historical total net inflow to $333 million. As of press time, the total net asset value of XRP spot ETFs was $983 million, with an ETF net asset value ratio (market capitalization as a percentage of XRP's total market capitalization) of 1.19%, and a historical cumulative net inflow of $1.24 billion.

According to SoSoValue data, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $787 million this week (February 23-27, Eastern Time). The BlackRock ETF IBIT saw the largest net inflow this week, with a weekly net inflow of $503 million, bringing its total historical net inflow to $61.81 billion. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) followed, with a weekly net inflow of $89.4264 million, while GBTC's total historical net outflow reached $25.87 billion. As of press time, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs was $83.4 billion, with an ETF net asset value ratio (market capitalization as a percentage of total Bitcoin market capitalization) of 6.36%, and a cumulative historical net inflow of $54.8 billion.

null source: https://x.com/BSCNews/status/2027949335216878005

Reports of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death have sparked a range of reactions in Iran. Bloomberg posted on X that the initial response in Tehran was one of celebration. However, Iranian authorities quickly moved to deny the reports, followed by expressions of mourning. The situation remains fluid as the country grapples with the news.

In a post on X, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour addressed the death of Khamenei and related prediction market events, stating, "We do not list markets directly linked to death. When a market is likely to result in death, we design rules to prevent people from profiting from it." Kalshi will handle the following related events concerning Khamenei's resignation as Supreme Leader: 1. All transaction fees in that market will be refunded; 2. If a user opened a position before Khamenei's death, settlement will be based on the price of the last trade before his death; 3. If a user opened a position after Khamenei's death, full compensation will be provided. Tarek Mansour added, "No user will lose a single dollar in this market. We will settle the market based on the last transaction price before Khamenei's death, which was at 1:14 AM Eastern Time today."

Brent crude oil prices may rise to approximately $80 per barrel even if the Iran conflict is controlled, according to William Jackson, Chief Emerging Markets Economist at Capital Economics. According to Jin10, this price level was the peak during the 12-day conflict in Iran last June. Jackson cautioned that if the conflict continues to affect supply, oil prices could jump to around $100 per barrel, potentially increasing global inflation rates by 0.6 to 0.7 percentage points. In a 'doomsday scenario,' where the Strait of Hormuz is completely blocked for 2–4 weeks due to an escalation in conflict, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have set a target price of $150–200 per barrel. This could trigger a global energy crisis, leading major economies into stagflation or recession. Historically, the second oil crisis in the late 1970s caused international oil prices to soar by over 200%, resulting in a recession in the United States.

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