Key Takeaways:The S&P 500 has traded above its 20-day moving average for 68 consecutive sessions.The VIX Volatility Index has dropped nearly 45 points since April, hitting a five-month low.Analysts expect a potential spike in volatility beginning in August, based on historical patterns.The U.S. equity market is showing signs of potential turbulence after an extended period of low volatility and consistent gains. According to a new analysis from The Kobeissi Letter, the S&P 500 has now remained above its 20-day moving average for 68 straight trading days — the longest such streak since the 1990s.Meanwhile, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) — widely considered Wall Street's "fear gauge" — has plunged approximately 45 points since April, currently hovering near 15, its lowest level since mid-February.Historical Trends Suggest Imminent Volatility SpikeHistorically, U.S. stock market volatility tends to remain subdued from May through July. However, data shows that volatility typically picks up in August, with the VIX often rising by about 5 points (or 30%) over the following three months.The extended bullish trend in the S&P 500 combined with historically low volatility raises the question of whether the market is overdue for a correction or a volatility shock, especially as macro uncertainty grows.What’s Fueling Investor Caution?Economic Data: Weaker U.S. job growth and shifting interest rate expectations are prompting investors to reassess risk.Macro Risks: Tariff escalations, Fed policy ambiguity, and geopolitical tensions may all contribute to rising uncertainty.Technical Indicators: Prolonged trading above short-term moving averages can signal overextension, often preceding a pullback.Volatility Could Be Reentering the PictureIf the historical pattern holds, market participants should brace for an increase in volatility through August and September, periods that often coincide with higher trading volume and sharper price swings.While the current trend has favored bulls, analysts caution that the next phase of the market may be defined by greater turbulence and shorter-term positioning, especially as traders digest the latest macro developments.

Key Takeaways:Funding rates on major centralized (CEX) and decentralized exchanges (DEX) diverge.Mixed sentiment: some markets show bearish signals, while others remain neutral.Current funding rates reflect uncertainty amid volatile macro and crypto conditions.On August 4, data from Coinglass revealed a diverging trend in crypto perpetual futures funding rates across mainstream centralized and decentralized exchanges. The funding rate discrepancies indicate a split between bearish and neutral sentiment, underscoring a broader sense of market indecision.Funding rates are a mechanism used in perpetual contracts to ensure alignment between the contract price and the spot price of the underlying asset. Rates above 0.01% typically reflect bullish market positioning, while rates below 0.005% suggest rising bearish sentiment.Mixed Sentiment Across PlatformsAccording to BlockBeats, the current funding landscape highlights fragmented market expectations:Some exchanges are reporting funding rates near or slightly above the 0.01% benchmark, suggesting modest bullish bets.Others are seeing rates fall toward or below the 0.005% threshold, hinting at growing short pressure.This divergence implies that while some traders remain cautious, others may be positioning for short-term recovery or range-bound activity. The inconsistency reflects a market in flux, potentially driven by macro uncertainty, ETF flows, and recent volatility in Bitcoin and altcoins.Macro and Technical Drivers Behind the SplitThe mixed funding rate environment comes at a time when:U.S. jobs data and Fed policy are reshaping expectations for interest rates.Bitcoin recently broke below key technical patterns, prompting risk-off moves.Ethereum continues to show strength in on-chain metrics, despite broader hesitation.These contrasting factors contribute to non-uniform trader behavior across derivatives platforms.Consolidation or Further Volatility?The divergence in funding rates suggests that the crypto market may be entering a consolidation phase, with neither bulls nor bears in full control. Traders should watch for shifts in funding rates alongside volume and open interest changes to gauge the next directional move.

Key Points:US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data below 50,000 for 6 consecutive months could signal a recession.The US may already be halfway to meeting this recessionary condition.Rising expectations of a Fed rate cut contrast with political instability and weak economic outlook.The latest warning on the U.S. labor market comes from Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, who said that six consecutive months of sub-50,000 non-farm payroll gains would be a clear recession signal. With recent data showing only 73,000 jobs added in July, and downward revisions to May and June, the U.S. may already be halfway toward that threshold.“If the NFP trend continues below 50,000, it could mark the beginning of a broader recessionary phase,” Ozkardeskaya noted, according to Jinshi Data.Fed Rate Cut Expectations Rise as Economic Fears MountWhile recession fears have fueled speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut as early as September, analysts caution that monetary easing alone won’t rescue markets amid deeper structural concerns.Markets have already priced in an 80.3% probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed's next policy meeting, up sharply from just 41.3% before the July jobs report.Political Risk and Economic Credibility in FocusThe weak jobs print has also added political pressure. President Trump recently fired the director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) over the labor data, accusing the agency of skewing figures for political purposes. This unprecedented move raises concerns about the independence and credibility of official economic data.“A rate cut won’t magically save the market,” Ozkardeskaya warned, adding that blaming data agencies for poor policy outcomes may undermine confidence in the U.S. economy’s institutional framework.Crypto and Hard Assets Could BenefitAs recession signals strengthen and political tensions rise, hard assets like Bitcoin and gold may gain appeal. Investors seeking protection from both inflation and systemic risk could increasingly rotate into alternative stores of value, especially if further NFP misses confirm a recessionary trajectory.

Key Takeaways:Analyst Axel Adler Jr. sees two more opportunities for BTC upside in this market cycle.Risk appetite among investors is declining as bull market matures.Fed expected to cut rates twice in 2025 before selling pressure outweighs demand.CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. believes the current bull market still holds two more potential rally phases before reaching its peak, despite signs of weakening investor sentiment and early profit-taking.According to a report shared by TechFlow, Adler noted that investor risk appetite has started to decline, consistent with the late-stage behavior of a bull cycle. Data shows the key market indicator surged past 1.9 in both March and December 2024, signaling strong bullish momentum at the time. However, the most recent peak is lower—suggesting reduced buying conviction and increasing sell pressure from holders."We're seeing a lower high forming, which often indicates a market cooling phase. Long-term holders are beginning to take profits, which puts pressure on prices," Adler said.Fed Rate Cuts May Fuel Final Crypto RalliesAdler also pointed to macroeconomic catalysts that could spur the final two rallies of this cycle. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates twice in 2025, providing temporary tailwinds for risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.Still, he warned that once these rate cuts are priced in and supply outpaces demand, the market could shift toward a broader correction phase.Final Upside Before Macro ShiftCryptoQuant’s outlook suggests investors should brace for volatility, with short-term opportunities still present—but waning. Market watchers are now monitoring Fed policy, ETF flows, and long-term holder behavior as signals for when the final phase of this crypto cycle will unfold.

Key Takeaways:Sluggish U.S. job growth increases market expectations of Fed rate cuts.Analysts at Mitsubishi UFJ say this benefits non-yielding assets like gold.Gold may see short-term support as traders seek safe-haven amid uncertainty.Gold prices could benefit in the short term as a weaker-than-expected U.S. labor market raises the probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, according to analysts at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG).The comments follow Friday’s disappointing non-farm payrolls data, which showed the U.S. added only 73,000 jobs in July, far below estimates. The weak print has triggered a market repricing of monetary policy expectations, with the probability of a September Fed rate cut rising above 80%, according to CME FedWatch data.“This is good news for interest-free gold,” MUFG analysts said, citing growing demand for safe-haven assets as economic uncertainty builds.Gold Gains as Fed Outlook ShiftsLower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, a non-yielding asset. As rate cut expectations intensify, gold often attracts capital from investors looking to hedge against market volatility and economic downturns.MUFG expects strong support for gold prices in the near term, especially if macro indicators continue to show signs of cooling, and geopolitical tensions persist.

From the dim light of a firefly in 2017 to the dazzling galaxy in 2025, Binance has survived the bull and bear cycles and the ups and downs of the industry in the past eight years.

Key Takeaways:SEC raises Bitcoin ETF options contract limit from 25,000 to 250,000.BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) stands to benefit most, per NYDIG.IBIT manages $85.5B in assets — over 4x larger than Fidelity’s FBTC.Expanded options strategies could reduce volatility and increase spot demand.SEC also approved in-kind redemption for crypto ETFs, reshaping market structure.BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) is expected to widen its lead as the dominant Bitcoin exchange-traded fund following a significant rule change by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).According to a research note by Greg Cipolaro, Global Head of Research at NYDIG, the SEC this week raised the options position limit for ETFs from 25,000 to 250,000 contracts — a tenfold increase that applies to all ETFs offering options, including IBIT but not Fidelity’s FBTC, the second-largest Bitcoin ETF.“The change is likely to widen the monstrous lead that IBIT already has over the other players,” Cipolaro said.IBIT Already Dominates the Bitcoin ETF MarketIBIT currently manages $85.5 billion in assets, more than four times the $21.35 billion under management by Fidelity’s FBTC, according to data from CoinGlass. The sharp contrast in assets under management (AUM) could deepen now that IBIT can offer significantly larger options exposure.Higher Limits Enable Advanced Options StrategiesCipolaro emphasized that the SEC’s move will likely lead to reduced volatility and increased spot Bitcoin demand. Larger options capacity allows institutional investors to pursue covered call strategies, which can stabilize portfolio risk and attract inflows from risk-parity–focused funds.“Less volatility makes Bitcoin appealing on a risk-parity basis, potentially drawing in new capital,” Cipolaro explained.Bitcoin's volatility has already been trending lower over the past 12 months, and this shift may amplify that trend further, creating a feedback loop that boosts spot demand.SEC’s In-Kind Approval Changes Market StructureThe SEC’s ETF approvals this week also included the green light for in-kind creation and redemption, allowing the exchange of ETF shares for the underlying crypto assets instead of cash. This move addresses a longstanding request from ETF issuers and could reshape crypto ETF market dynamics.“It’s a key feature issuers had wanted,” Cipolaro noted, adding that Authorized Participants (APs) without crypto infrastructure may now find themselves at a disadvantage.Currently, only Jane Street and Virtu have crypto-capable affiliates able to execute both sides of in-kind redemptions. Other broker-dealers may need to partner or acquire crypto capabilities to remain competitive.Institutional Edge Widens for IBITAs the regulatory framework matures and technical limits expand, BlackRock’s IBIT is poised to solidify its dominance in the Bitcoin ETF space. With expanded options limits and favorable structural changes, IBIT may not only lead in AUM but also in liquidity, volatility control, and institutional adoption.

According to Foresight News, monitoring by NLNico reveals that Strategy did not make any additional Bitcoin purchases last week, aside from acquiring 21,021 Bitcoins through its STRC product.

Key Takeaways:Ether (ETH) “mega whales” continued aggressive accumulation during the weekend price dip.A single address reportedly bought $300 million worth of ETH via Galaxy Digital OTC.BlackRock’s Ethereum ETF has seen 10 consecutive days of inflows, totaling $1.7 billion.Ether whale address count has increased by over 200 since July, per Glassnode.ETH dipped below $3,400 but recovered to $3,560 by Monday.Ether (ETH) continues to attract major institutional and whale interest, with blockchain data showing substantial accumulation through the weekend market dip. According to Arkham Intelligence, one whale address alone acquired $300 million in ETH via over-the-counter (OTC) trades at Galaxy Digital, and now holds 79,461 ETH worth approximately $282.5 million.The aggressive buying comes amid sustained inflows into Ether-based exchange-traded products (ETPs), led by BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust, which has seen $1.7 billion in inflows over the past 10 trading days. Data from Dune Analytics shows a 40% surge in on-chain ETH holdings by ETFs over the last 30 days.Whale Addresses on the RiseOn-chain analytics firm Glassnode reports that the number of “mega whale” addresses — wallets holding over 10,000 ETH — has increased by more than 200 since early July. This includes wallets associated with custodians, exchanges, and ETPs, indicating growing institutional demand.The increase in whale accumulation reflects a broader trend of confidence in ETH ahead of potential regulatory clarity and further inflows from traditional finance.ETH Price Rebounds After Weekend DipEther’s price briefly dropped below $3,400 over the weekend before rebounding to $3,560 on Monday. Market sentiment was initially rattled by soft U.S. labor data, which sparked fears of a broader risk-off trend. However, expectations of monetary easing could shift momentum back in favor of crypto.“The cooling labor market initially spooked investors, but rising odds of rate cuts could reverse the sell-off,” said Monika Mlodzianowska, Director of Strategic Partnerships at CoinW Exchange. “Liquidity tailwinds may return to crypto markets in the coming weeks.”August Historically Bearish for ETH, but Bullish Setups EmergingEther has posted losses in each of the last three Augusts, with double-digit drops in 2023 and 2024, per CoinGlass. However, during the 2021 bull market, ETH surged 35.6% in August, offering a reminder that macro conditions and sentiment can dramatically shift monthly patterns.Meanwhile, Eric Trump, son of U.S. President Donald Trump, urged his followers on X (formerly Twitter) to “buy the ETH dip” over the weekend — adding a political twist to the narrative. CNBC also spotlighted Ethereum, calling it “Wall Street’s invisible backbone” in a Saturday article, underscoring rising institutional recognition.Will Institutional Demand Offset Historical Seasonality?As Ether enters a historically weak month, the market is watching whether whale accumulation and ETF inflows can sustain momentum. With over $3.7 trillion in digital asset market cap still intact, institutional conviction appears strong — even as price action remains volatile, according to Cointelegraph.

null source: https://x.com/BTC_Archive/status/1952341014263324800

واصلت "حيتان الإيثر الضخمة" شراء العملة المشفرة، التي شهدت تراجعًا خلال عطلة نهاية الأسبوع قبل أن تبدأ بالتعافي. source: https://ar.cointelegraph.com/news/eth-holders-scoop-up-ether-as-mega-whale-addresses-surge?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound

Hong Kong, stablecoin, regulation, "Hong Kong Stablecoin Draft" officially takes effect Analysis of Hong Kong's digital asset regulation: development process + sandbox practice Golden Finance, witness history.

Recommended reading tonight: 1. Shocking BTC theft exposed: 120,000 Bitcoins worth $14.5 billion; on-chain news reveals the truth; 2. After ten years of refinement, Ethereum has become the foundation of the on-chain capital market; 3. The underlying logic behind Ethereum's leadership in the crypto market in July;

This article will focus on this incentive activity, briefly explain USDe/sUSDe and related platforms, and then analyze the systemic challenges hidden behind it from the perspectives of revenue structure, user behavior, and capital flow.

Recently, the concepts of "stablecoin" and "RWA" (tokenization of real-world assets) have become very popular. When they collide, a group of carefully disguised "fund pools" are quietly growing.

A powerful wartime drama set during one of the darkest periods in modern Chinese history is captivating audiences across China this summer, as the nation ramps up its campaign to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II.

OpenAI raised $8.3 billion from top investors, boosting its valuation to $300 billion as it aims for a $40 billion total this year. The funding comes as the company faces pressure to switch to a full for-profit model and finalise new deals with Microsoft.

The UK’s Advertising Standards Authority (ASA) has officially banned a Coinbase's satarical advertisement, titled "Everything is Fine."

A Coinbase ad was banned from UK TV by the Advertising Standards Authority for its critical message about the country’s financial system. Coinbase’s CEO criticised the decision, saying the ban only drew more attention to the ad’s call for crypto innovation and updated regulation.

Hacker attack, Arkham, shocking BTC theft exposed: 120,000 Bitcoins, $14.5 billion. On-chain information reveals the truth. Golden Finance, why did a major BTC mining pool suddenly disappear 4 years ago? The answer is revealed.