Odaily Seer's monitoring shows that in the Polymarket prediction event for "NBA Western Conference Semifinals Game 1: Thunder vs. Lakers," an account with a winning percentage exceeding 55% (address: 0xc8075693f48668a264b9fa313b47f52712fcc12b) purchased $160,000 worth of bets on a total score of less than 214.5 for the Thunder and Lakers, with an average opening price of 52.2¢. Game 1 of the NBA Western Conference Semifinals between the Thunder and Lakers will tip off tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM Beijing time. The Lakers have a 0-4 record against the Thunder this season, with an average loss of 29 points per game. Furthermore, Lakers star Luka Doncic will miss tomorrow's game. Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before prices are set.

Key TakeawaysWTI crude futures fell approximately 6% to $95.28 per barrel after Axios reported the US and Iran are close to a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the warBitcoin climbed toward $82,000 during European morning trading alongside a more than 1% rise in Nasdaq futures as risk sentiment improved sharplyThe draft MOU -- negotiated by US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner with Iranian officials -- reportedly includes Iran agreeing to remove highly enriched uranium from the countryThe prospect of normalizing oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz drove the sharp risk-on shift, though some analysts remain skeptical about Iran making durable nuclear concessionsForexLive currency analyst Justin Low said he is "a bit skeptical on the final point about Iran ceding ground on the nuclear front"Oil's six percent single-session crash is the number Binance users should be staring at on Wednesday morning -- because if it holds, it changes the entire macro picture that has been weighing on crypto markets since February.WTI crude futures fell to $95.28 per barrel, their sharpest single-session decline since the US-Iran conflict began, after Axios reported that Washington and Tehran are close to finalizing a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war. The draft agreement was negotiated directly and through intermediaries by US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner alongside Iranian officials, and reportedly includes a provision for Iran to remove highly enriched uranium from the country -- a long-standing US demand that Tehran had previously refused to accept.Why This Matters for BitcoinThe Strait of Hormuz has been the single most important macro variable for Bitcoin since late February. Iranian forces mining the strait and disrupting oil flows created an energy shock that pushed Brent above $126 at its peak, kept inflation expectations elevated, pushed the Fed toward a higher-for-longer stance, and capped Bitcoin's ability to sustain moves above $79,000--$80,000 through April.A credible path to normalizing Hormuz oil flows removes all of those headwinds simultaneously. Lower oil means lower inflation expectations, a more accommodative Fed, reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar, and improved risk appetite across all asset classes. Bitcoin, which has shown an increasingly strong response to geopolitical de-escalation signals throughout this cycle, climbed toward $82,000 during European trading as traders rapidly repriced the scenario.Nasdaq futures rose more than 1% in parallel, confirming that the risk-on shift is broad rather than crypto-specific.The SkepticsNot everyone is ready to call the trade. ForexLive currency analyst Justin Low said he is "a bit skeptical on the final point about Iran ceding ground on the nuclear front. But we'll have to wait and see I guess" -- a caution that reflects a legitimate concern. Iran has resisted uranium removal demands through multiple rounds of negotiations, and a one-page MOU is a long way from a fully implemented agreement with verification mechanisms in place.Some market participants are also aware that previous Iran ceasefire signals triggered sharp Bitcoin rallies that partially reversed when talks stalled. The April 18 ceasefire announcement, for example, produced a $593 million short squeeze before subsequent complications moderated the move.The Trader's SetupFor Binance users watching the price action, the key levels are straightforward. Bitcoin is currently trading near $81,912 with $82,000 acting as the immediate psychological target. A confirmed MOU announcement -- moving from an Axios report to official statement -- could be the catalyst that finally breaks Bitcoin decisively above the $80,000--$82,000 resistance band that has capped the past several rally attempts.The derivatives setup supports an asymmetric upside scenario. Bitcoin futures open interest is near a record 800,000 BTC with flat to slightly positive funding rates -- meaning the market is not overheated and has room to absorb fresh bullish capital. The OI-adjusted CVD has already flipped positive across most major tokens, confirming buyers are in control of price action heading into any further de-escalation confirmation.Oil's next move will tell the story. If WTI holds below $100 on confirmation of the MOU progress, the inflation-rate-dollar headwind that has defined this entire market period begins to lift in a meaningful and sustained way.

The three major U.S. stock indices experienced an upward movement at the opening today. According to NS3.AI, the S&P 500 led the gains with a 0.62% increase. The Nasdaq followed closely, opening up by 0.63%, while the Dow Jones saw a modest rise of 0.10%. This positive start reflects investor optimism in the market.

The UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has launched an investigation into Mastercard, Visa, and PayPal over potential anti-competitive practices related to the flow and use of funds in PayPal's digital wallet. According to ChainCatcher, the FCA announced on Wednesday that it has not yet reached a conclusion on whether these companies have violated competition laws. PayPal disclosed the investigation in a regulatory filing this week. A PayPal representative stated that the company is cooperating with the FCA's investigation but declined to comment further as the case is ongoing.

According to ChainCatcher, Federal Reserve official Musalem stated that the current financial environment is very accommodative.

Gold prices increased to $4,685.60 per ounce, while silver saw a rise to $76.838 per ounce. According to NS3.AI, in contrast, WTI crude oil experienced a decline of 6.18%, settling at $97.91 per barrel. Similarly, Brent crude oil fell by 6.35%, reaching $108.00 per barrel.

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U.S. Federal Reserve official Musalem stated that the current inflation level is notably higher than the 2% target. According to Jin10, this assessment reflects ongoing concerns about inflationary pressures in the economy. Musalem's comments come amid discussions on monetary policy adjustments to address these challenges.

Uber's stock price increased by 5.4% following the company's optimistic forecast for its second-quarter bookings and profits. According to Jin10, Uber anticipates that both metrics will exceed market expectations, contributing to the positive investor sentiment.

The first round of financing for DeepSeek, a leading AI company in China, has attracted significant market attention.

Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee spokesperson, Ebrahim Rezai, has criticized recent statements made by the U.S. According to Foresight News, Rezai expressed on social media that the remarks published by Axios represent the U.S.'s wish list rather than reality. He emphasized that what the U.S. cannot achieve in face-to-face negotiations cannot be obtained through a failed war. Rezai further stated that Iran is prepared to take action if the U.S. does not make necessary concessions.

According to data from msx.com, at the opening of the US stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.98%, the S&P 500 rose 0.62%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.64%. The crypto sector showed mixed performance, with SharpLink rising 1.58%, Solana rising 0.93%, and Circle rising 0.65%; while Strategy (MSTR) fell 2.26%, Coinbase fell 1.95%, and Bitmine fell 0.74%. msx.com is a decentralized RWA trading platform that has listed hundreds of RWA tokens, covering US stock and ETF tokens such as AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NFLX, and NVDA.

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