Key TakeawaysEthereum (ETH) price slid 5.50% in 24h to below $3,800, underperforming the broader crypto market (-4.29%).Rejection at $4,200 resistance triggered $210M in long liquidations within 24 hoursETH ETFs saw $81.4M in outflows on October 29, led by Fidelity’s FETH ETF (-$69.5M) ETH Price Today: Sellers Regain Control Below $3,800Ethereum fell sharply on Thursday, dropping 5.16% to $3,818.34, extending its weekly decline as investors reacted to ETF outflows, macro headwinds, and a failed breakout attempt above the key $4,200 resistance zone.The sell-off came amid a broader crypto pullback following hawkish remarks from the U.S. Federal Reserve, while on-chain data showed declining futures demand and slower network activity. Technical Rejection Triggers LiquidationsETH’s latest decline followed a sharp rejection near $4,200—a major resistance level that coincides with the 50-day SMA and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement zone.Trading volume surged above $40 billion, confirming distribution as the price fell toward $3,800.Implications for ETH:$210 million in ETH long positions were liquidated in 24 hours, according to Crypto.news, signaling forced deleveraging.ETH’s breakdown below the 30-day SMA ($4,127) and momentum indicators turning negative reinforce short-term bearish bias.The next critical support lies near the 200-day EMA ($3,622), while a close below $3,737 (Fibonacci 78.6%) could accelerate losses toward the $3,500–$3,350 zone.Technical snapshot:RSI (14): 41.0, neutral but weakeningMomentum (10): -181.3, bearish signalMACD (12,26): -77.2 – Mild bullish crossover, but fadingEMA(10): $3,950.20 and EMA(200): $3,600.40, Short-term momentum remains below trend structureSource: TradingViewInstitutional Pullback: ETF Outflows Undermine ConfidenceEthereum ETFs recorded $81.4 million in outflows on October 29, while Bitcoin funds lost $470 million, according to CoinTribune.Fidelity’s FETH ETF led redemptions with $69.5 million withdrawn, underscoring cautious sentiment among institutional traders.Implications for ETH:Risk rotation: Traditional finance investors pared crypto exposure amid macro uncertainty and diverging Fed signals.Yield mismatch: ETH’s 7% staking yield has not been enough to offset the broader risk-off tone. Altcoin Weakness Adds Downside MomentumEthereum’s 5.16% drop outpaced Bitcoin’s 4.29% decline, as the Altcoin Season Index plunged 48% in October to 29, highlighting the market’s shift away from high-beta assets.Market context:ETH’s 1.1 beta to BTC means downside moves are amplified during risk aversion phases.Solana’s ETF debut drew speculative flows away from ETH, though Ethereum still processes 3.7 million daily transactions, 3.5x Solana’s throughput.This relative underperformance reflects rotation dynamics rather than structural weakness, but traders remain cautious until ETH reclaims the $4,000 handle. Macro Factors: Fed Policy Adds ComplexityThe October 28–29 FOMC meeting brought a 25-basis-point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75%–4.00% — the second consecutive cut.However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious tone emphasized data dependency, cooling the initial optimism in risk assets.While inflation has eased to around 3.0% YoY, the federal government shutdown has disrupted economic data flow, leaving policymakers “flying blind,” as Powell described. Outlook: Can ETH Hold $3,737?Short-term technicals point to a fragile support zone between $3,737 and $3,622.Losing this range could open downside targets at $3,500 and $3,350, while reclaiming $4,000 would reestablish bullish momentum toward $4,200–$4,500.Bullish recovery scenario: ETH stabilizes above the 200-day EMA and benefits from renewed ETF inflows post-Fed meeting, potentially targeting $4,500 by late Q4.Bearish continuation: Failure to hold the $3,737–$3,622 zone could extend losses toward $3,350, confirming a deeper correction phase.
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