According to BlockBeats, U.S. President Donald Trump is set to announce a series of tariff measures in the Rose Garden, which is expected to exert pressure on risk assets in the short term. As the situation stabilizes, there may be instances of 'non-U.S. exceptionalism,' where global stock indices could continue to rise, potentially reaching new highs despite the U.S. being marginalized due to policy choices.
The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates 2.5 times in 2025. The Fed faces challenges with weak consumer confidence and soft data, indicating a potential slowdown in U.S. GDP growth in the second quarter. Inflation pressures from tariffs may begin to intensify from April 2, creating a classic stagflation environment where the Fed might lean towards raising rates rather than cutting them. Currently, the Fed appears to be adopting a wait-and-see approach.
In the cryptocurrency sector, market sentiment remains subdued. Bitcoin continues to fluctuate without a clear direction, while Ethereum holds at the $1,800 support level. Overall, the crypto market shows signs of weakness, with many cryptocurrencies down 90% year-to-date, and some experiencing declines of over 30% in the past week. Without significant changes in the macroeconomic environment or strong catalysts, a substantial market reversal is not anticipated. Although light positions might support minor gains, any pursuit of upward trends is unlikely until the macro environment improves.
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